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JP Morgan says Middle East crude exports recovered to 98% of pre-war levels in September at 17.5 million bpd, with Hormuz flows back to late-June highs, though estimates from Goldman Sachs, the U.S. Treasury, and TotalEnergies diverge sharply.
New tanker-tracking data shows that Iran’s new oil exports have effectively ground to a halt, while crude exports from Arab countries in the region surpassed pre-war levels in the final week of September.
Experts say US military assistance, using shuttle tankers and pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz mean exports have rebounded.