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Climate Impact Lab projects about 1,200 extra heat deaths in South Africa as El Niño intensifies
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- Published
- Sep 28, 2026, 8:30 AM UTC
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Global climate phenomenon
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular pattern but do have some appearance of cycles. The occurrence of ENSO is not easily predictable. It affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics, and has links (teleconnections) to higher-latitude regions of the world. The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as "El Niño" and the cooling phase as "La Niña".
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A Climate Impact Lab report projects about 1,200 additional heat deaths in South Africa between Sept 2026 and Feb 2027 as a potent El Niño drives extreme heat and weather risks.