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Escalation of attacks threatens to derail recovery in Middle East oil exports, says the International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report for October. "A recovery in Middle East oil supply was well underway in September, with Gulf crude oil exports approaching pre-war levels.
World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.5 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q26 and 2.6 mb/d on average in 2026. As the Iran war manifests itself through restricted product availability, soaring fuel prices and a deteriorating economic outlook, diesel will register 25% of the drop. A partial recovery, of 2 mb/d, will leave 2027 global