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The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates at its October meeting after weak September hiring, while persistent inflation could prompt a December increase.
Pricing assigns a 36% chance to a 25-basis-point increase at the October meeting and higher cumulative hike odds by December.
Kalshi traders price a 33% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike in October, down from 65% on Sept. 25, after softer August PCE inflation data.