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Super El Niño to cause 451,000 heat deaths
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- Sep 25, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
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Global climate phenomenon
"Super El Niño" events, officially called very strong El Niño events, are climatic phenomena resulting from the average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean rising by 2° Celsius or more. Climate impacts from Super El Niño events can include widespread and severe flooding, drought and unseasonable temperature extremes, which can result in crop failures, food shortages, famine, disruption in water supplies, displacement, declines in native fauna, and an increased risk of wildfires and cyclones, which can contribute to economic disruption and civil conflict.
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The super El Niño could cause 31,400 extra heat deaths in Nigeria alone. Heat warnings, cooling centres and worker protections could help save lives.
(CNN) — Nearly half a million people across the world could lose their lives by February due to El Niño-driven extreme heat, according to a sobering new report.
A University of Chicago report projects 451,000 extra heat deaths from this El Niño, 3,500 in the U.S. What the model-based estimate shows.